Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Iran oil sanctions relief odds slide below 40% on Polymarket

PredictionBubbles' movers board, read this run from the venues on Nov. 5 at 05:37 UTC across 2,012 ranked markets, lists the contract on the US reissuing Iran oil…

Polymarket’s contract on whether the US will reissue Iran oil sanction relief by December 31 fell 9.5 percentage points to 36.5%, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers board. The contract had $83K traded.

Market snapshot

The supplied summary places the venue readings on Nov. 5 at 05:37 UTC. PredictionBubbles’ board covered 2,012 ranked markets in that run.

The accompanying publication timestamp was Nov 5, 2026 · 1:24 AM ET. The reported move puts the contract’s implied probability below 40%, with the December 31 deadline remaining the central condition.

Limits of the available reporting

The supplied material contains only a headline and a partial summary, with no source links. It identifies the price decline and trading volume but provides no explanation for the change or details of any US policy development.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 9.5-percentage-point decline signals a lower market-implied likelihood of relief being reissued by December 31, not confirmation of a policy outcome.
  • The $83K traded supplies a measure of activity, but the material does not specify its measurement period or provide liquidity information.
  • Without a stated catalyst or full resolution rules, the available reporting does not establish why traders repriced the contract or exactly what action would qualify as reissued relief.
PredictionMarketsPolymarketOilInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Polymarketpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Polymarket”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related