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FiftyPlusOne claims House forecasting lead and second place in Senate

FiftyPlusOne scored 0.0003 on the House, the best of any forecaster or market tracked, against 0.003 for Polymarket and 0.004 for Kalshi. In the Senate it scored 0.043, second only to Silver Bulletin at 0.032 and ahead of Polymarket at 0.056 and Kalshi at 0.060.

FiftyPlusOne ranked first for House forecasts and second for Senate forecasts in a comparison of Brier scores, according to FiftyPlusOne. Its reported scores placed it ahead of both Polymarket and Kalshi in each chamber.

House comparison

For the House, FiftyPlusOne reported a Brier score of 0.0003, the best result among all forecasters and markets tracked in its comparison.

Polymarket recorded 0.003 and Kalshi recorded 0.004, according to FiftyPlusOne’s figures.

Senate comparison

For the Senate, FiftyPlusOne reported a score of 0.043. Silver Bulletin was the only forecaster ahead of it, with 0.032.

Polymarket’s Senate score was 0.056, while Kalshi’s was 0.060. The results were reported in an item published Nov 5, 2026 · 2:15 AM ET; the supplied summary did not include source links or further methodological detail.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The reported comparison put FiftyPlusOne ahead of Polymarket and Kalshi for both House and Senate forecasts, but behind Silver Bulletin in the Senate.
  • Polymarket placed ahead of Kalshi in both chamber-level comparisons.
  • These rankings come from FiftyPlusOne’s own reporting. Without further methodological detail in the supplied material, the figures offer a limited basis for broader conclusions about relative forecasting performance.
KalshiPolymarketSenateSilverInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    FiftyPlusOne
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to FiftyPlusOne”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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