Democratic congressional sweep aligns with Election Day prediction market odds
CBS News projected Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, with Senate flips in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina and Maine. Kalshi had priced a Democratic sweep at 75 percent and Polymarket at 75.5 percent on Election Day, in the first midterm run at scale on licensed Associated Press data.
CBS News projected Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate, according to Nexfinity News. The projected outcome matched the scenario favored by prediction markets on Election Day.
Senate flips underpin projected majority
The reported Senate flips were in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina and Maine. Those seven states featured in the projected shift to Democratic control of the chamber.
The Nexfinity News update was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 2:15 AM ET. The account described CBS News projections, rather than certified election results.
Markets favored control of both chambers
On Election Day, Kalshi priced a Democratic sweep at 75 percent, while Polymarket put it at 75.5 percent, according to Nexfinity News. The two platforms therefore differed by just half a percentage point on the prospect of Democrats winning both chambers.
The election also marked the first midterm conducted at scale using licensed Associated Press data, according to the report. That data arrangement was a separate milestone from the CBS News projections cited in the account.
What it means for prediction markets
- The favored scenario matched the projections: Both platforms assigned a Democratic sweep roughly a three-in-four probability on Election Day.
- Prices were closely aligned: Kalshi’s 75 percent and Polymarket’s 75.5 percent indicated little divergence between the platforms on that outcome.
- Projection and settlement remain distinct: The supplied account gives CBS News projections but does not specify contract settlement status or resolution terms.
- One outcome is not a calibration test: The match between the favored scenario and the projected result does not, by itself, establish the broader accuracy of either platform.
Sources & attribution
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- Nexfinity News
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Nexfinity News”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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