Ossoff moves past Vance as post-midterm trading reshapes 2028 odds

Jon Ossoff has taken the lead in 2028 presidential betting on Polymarket and Kalshi, reaching 18 percent on both platforms after the midterms, according to Reuters.

The report, published Nov 5, 2026 at 2:15 AM ET, put Ossoff 3 points ahead of J.D. Vance following a 5-point increase in Ossoff’s implied probability.

A change at the front of the market

Reuters attributed the move to a post-midterm surge in betting on the 2028 contest. The shift marks the first time Vance has no longer held a clear lead in the markets for who will succeed Donald Trump.

Ossoff’s matching 18 percent readings establish the same favourite across the two venues. That lead remains well below a majority probability, distinguishing his position as the top-priced contender from an expectation that he is more likely than not to win.

Broader expectations shift toward Democrats

Pictet Asset Management said the probability of a Democratic victory in 2028 had increased materially following the midterm sweep, according to Reuters.

That assessment concerns the party’s overall prospects, rather than Ossoff’s individual chances. The two measures offer different perspectives on the post-midterm reassessment: one identifies the leading candidate, while the other addresses the likelihood of a Democratic win.

What it means for prediction markets

• Leadership has changed: Ossoff’s 5-point rise to 18 percent places him 3 points above Vance on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
• Favourite does not mean probable winner: An 18 percent implied probability leaves substantial uncertainty around the eventual outcome.
• Party and candidate probabilities are distinct: Pictet Asset Management’s assessment of stronger Democratic prospects does not establish which Democrat would win.