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Kalshi dominates October as US prediction market trading reaches $120.7 billion

US prediction market exchanges traded 120.7 billion dollars in October, up 64 percent from September, according to DeFi Rate figures cited by Exploding Topics. Polymarket US traded 14.77 billion dollars in October, up 69.8 percent, and Kalshi's busiest day of the month was October 24 at 5.30 billion dollars.

US prediction market exchanges recorded $120.7 billion in October trading volume, a 64 percent increase from September, according to DeFi Rate figures cited by Exploding Topics.

Kalshi accounted for about 81 percent of that activity, with $98.2 billion traded during the month. Its volume rose 61 percent from September, according to Exploding Topics.

Growth extends beyond the market leader

Polymarket US posted October volume of $14.77 billion, up 69.8 percent. Its growth rate exceeded both Kalshi’s and the overall US market’s, although its trading total remained substantially smaller.

Kalshi’s highest-volume day in October was October 24, when trading reached $5.30 billion, according to Exploding Topics. The figures place its monthly scale alongside a notable single-day peak.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Activity remains concentrated: Kalshi’s roughly 81 percent share means it accounted for most reported US prediction market trading in October.
  • Growth rates and scale tell different stories: Polymarket US expanded faster in percentage terms, while Kalshi retained a much larger volume base.
  • Volume is not an outcome signal: These figures measure exchange activity, not contract probabilities or the likelihood of any particular event.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Exploding Topics
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