Polymarket adds US-Iran ceasefire markets with lower odds for December
PredictionBubbles, in its new markets list read on November 5, shows the two ceasefire contracts opened about 23 hours ago, with 85,000 dollars traded on the November 30 version and 90,000 dollars on the December 31 version. The pair extends Polymarket's Iran board beyond the invasion and airspace contracts already trading.
Polymarket has opened two contracts on whether an effective US-Iran ceasefire will hold through November 30 and December 31, according to PredictionBubbles. The contracts were priced at 40.5 percent and 28.5 percent, respectively.
Two deadlines, different pricing
PredictionBubbles’ new markets list, read on November 5, showed that both contracts had opened about 23 hours earlier. The report was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 1:15 AM ET.
The November 30 contract had recorded 85,000 dollars in trading, while the December 31 contract had recorded 90,000 dollars. The later deadline therefore attracted more trading despite its lower quoted probability.
Iran market coverage expands
The additions broaden Polymarket’s Iran board, where invasion and airspace contracts were already trading, according to PredictionBubbles. These new listings focus on the durability of an effective ceasefire across two specified deadlines.
The supplied summary does not include the contracts’ resolution rules or define what qualifies as an effective ceasefire. Those omissions limit how precisely readers can interpret the difference between the two prices.
What it means for prediction markets
- The later deadline carries lower odds: The December 31 contract’s 28.5 percent price sits below the November 30 contract’s 40.5 percent, indicating a lower market-implied likelihood for the longer ceasefire horizon.
- Trading is spread across both dates: Reported volume was 85,000 dollars for November 30 and 90,000 dollars for December 31; volume alone does not establish confidence in either outcome.
- Resolution terms remain important: Without the underlying rules, the summary does not establish exactly which developments would determine settlement.
Sources & attribution
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