Polymarket pricing shifts toward Bank of Mexico holding rates steady
PredictionBubbles lists the no-change contract at 77.5 percent with 152,000 dollars traded, while the contract on a 25 basis point cut falls 6 points to 23.2 percent on 137,000 dollars. Both markets resolve in about 18 hours around the Bank of Mexico November 2026 meeting.
According to PredictionBubbles, Polymarket’s contract for no change in Bank of Mexico interest rates rose 7 points to 77.5 percent ahead of the November 2026 decision.
The update, published Nov 5, 2026 · 1:15 AM ET, listed 152,000 dollars traded on the no-change contract.
Rate-cut contract loses ground
The contract for a 25 basis point cut moved in the opposite direction, falling 6 points to 23.2 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. Trading on that contract totaled 137,000 dollars.
Both markets were expected to resolve in about 18 hours around the Bank of Mexico November 2026 meeting. The reported moves show pricing shifting toward an unchanged rate, though the summary provides no explanation for that shift.
What it means for prediction markets
- Holding rates leads in pricing: The no-change contract stood at 77.5 percent, compared with 23.2 percent for a 25 basis point cut.
- Trading spans both outcomes: Reported volume was 152,000 dollars for no change and 137,000 dollars for the cut.
- Resolution is close: The roughly 18-hour window places the focus on the November 2026 meeting; the quoted prices are market assessments, not a confirmed policy outcome.
Sources & attribution
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