Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Bitcoin year-end band shows 3.6-cent pricing split across prediction venues

Rivo, in its cross-venue arbitrage board read at 9:10 PM ET on November 4, prices the same Bitcoin end of 2026 band at 7 cents on Polymarket US and 10.6 cents on Kalshi. Rivo notes a gap only locks in a payout after both venues' fees, which near 50 cents run about 3.5 cents combined for two taker orders.

Rivo’s cross-venue arbitrage board showed a 3.6-cent difference between Polymarket US and Kalshi for the same Bitcoin year-end price band: $70,000 to $75,000 at the end of 2026.

The board reading, taken at 9:10 PM ET on November 4, priced the band at 7 cents on Polymarket US and 10.6 cents on Kalshi, according to Rivo. The supplied report was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 1:15 AM ET.

Fees distinguish a price gap from a locked-in payout

The lower price on Polymarket US establishes a difference between the venues at that snapshot. It does not, by itself, establish a payout that can be locked in: Rivo notes that fees on both venues must be accounted for.

For two taker orders priced near 50 cents, those combined fees run about 3.5 cents, according to Rivo. That benchmark is close to the reported 3.6-cent spread, but it is not a fee calculation for the quoted 7-cent and 10.6-cent prices.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The comparison is time-specific: The quoted spread reflects Rivo’s November 4 reading at 9:10 PM ET, rather than a confirmed price at publication.
  • Gross spreads are not net payouts: Both venues’ fees matter when assessing whether the pricing difference can lock in a payout.
  • The fee benchmark has limits: The roughly 3.5-cent combined charge applies near 50 cents; the supplied material does not establish the net result at the reported contract prices.
KalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Rivo
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Rivo”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related