McIlroy overtakes Rahm in Kalshi’s Abu Dhabi golf winner market

Rory McIlroy led Kalshi’s Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship winner market at 24 percent, ahead of Jon Rahm at 18 percent, according to DeFi Rate’s November 6 listing of its most-traded sports events.

The market recorded 294,000 dollars in trading over 24 hours. The supplied report was published on Nov 6, 2026, at 10:15 AM ET.

A change at the top

Rahm had led the same market earlier in the day, according to DeFi Rate. The later listing put McIlroy six percentage points ahead of him.

The supplied summary does not give the earlier probabilities or explain the shift. It establishes a change in the market leader, but not whether that reflected McIlroy rising, Rahm falling, or both.

Contract terms

Each contract pays 1 dollar if its specified outcome occurs. McIlroy’s 24 percent reading made him the market leader in the reported snapshot, rather than an outcome priced as more likely than not.

What it means for prediction markets

• Leadership changed within the day: Rahm’s earlier lead had given way to McIlroy by the later reported snapshot, making timing important when comparing market standings.
• The reported gap was six percentage points: McIlroy stood at 24 percent and Rahm at 18 percent; the summary provides no probabilities for other contenders.
• Volume does not explain direction: The 294,000 dollars traded over 24 hours measures market activity, but the supplied material does not identify which trades drove the change.