Polymarket puts Russia and Ukraine ceasefire odds at 15.5 percent
World Monitor ranks the ceasefire contract among the most traded geopolitics markets in its November 6 live reading of 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets. Each contract pays 1 dollar if the outcome occurs.
A Polymarket contract on a Russia and Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026 is priced at 15.5 percent, according to World Monitor. The contract has recorded 10.5 million dollars in trading volume.
Ceasefire contract draws geopolitical trading activity
World Monitor places the contract among the most traded geopolitics markets in its November 6 live reading. That assessment covers 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi.
The report was published on Nov 6, 2026 at 10:30 AM ET. Its pricing snapshot puts the ceasefire outcome well below an even chance, despite the contract’s substantial trading activity.
Price and payout
Each contract pays 1 dollar if its specified outcome occurs, according to World Monitor. For this market, the stated outcome is a Russia and Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026.
The supplied summary does not include detailed settlement rules or earlier prices. It therefore provides a snapshot of market expectations, rather than evidence of how those expectations have changed.
What it means for prediction markets
- Low probability, substantial volume: The 15.5 percent price and 10.5 million dollars traded distinguish the market’s assessment of likelihood from the amount of trading it has attracted.
- The deadline defines the question: The contract concerns an agreement by December 31, 2026, not the prospect of a ceasefire without a time limit.
- Settlement details remain unspecified: The summary identifies the outcome and 1 dollar payout but does not explain what evidence would qualify an agreement for resolution.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- World Monitor
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to World Monitor”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Polymarket says 98.4 percent of resolved midterm races went to its pre-election favorite, 419 of 426, World Today Journal reports
- Alaska Senate market volume on Kalshi climbs to 28.4 million dollars, nearly double the Wednesday total, as Peltola leads by 637 votes, Action Network reports
- Sports prediction markets trade 426 million dollars in 24 hours, down 11 percent, with Kalshi handling 236 million dollars, DeFi Rate reports
- Foley and Lardner maps the circuit split over sports event contracts as prediction market litigation heads toward the Supreme Court
- Fed decision in December ranks third among the most-traded prediction markets, with a 25 basis point increase priced at 69 cents on Polymarket, DeFi Rate reports
- Kalshi files its opposition to Utah's preliminary-injunction request in the state's civil case, arguing its event contracts fall within Utah's lawful-business-transaction exception