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DeSantis gains ground in Republican nomination betting as Vance retains lead

NextPredict says DeSantis jumped after publicly breaking with Trump the day before the election, while Vance still leads the Republican nominee market. On the Democratic side, Jon Ossoff posted the biggest market gain of the night, while Josh Shapiro and J.B. Pritzker slipped despite winning their governor races by more than 20 points.

Ron DeSantis rose nearly 14 points to 19 percent in Kalshi’s market for the 2028 Republican nominee over three hours, according to NextPredict. J.D. Vance declined 4 points to 31 percent but remained the market leader.

In its update published Nov 4, 2026, at 11:15 PM ET, NextPredict linked DeSantis’s advance to his public break with Trump the day before the election. The reported moves narrowed the distance between DeSantis and Vance without changing who held the lead.

Democratic winners see different market reactions

On the Democratic side, Jon Ossoff recorded the largest market gain of the night, according to NextPredict. The supplied summary did not specify the size of his increase or his resulting market level.

Josh Shapiro and J.B. Pritzker, meanwhile, lost ground in the market despite each winning their governor races by more than 20 points. Their contrasting election and market results show that decisive victories did not translate into higher nomination expectations in the reported trading.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A sharp move, not a leadership change: DeSantis’s rise to 19 percent left him behind Vance at 31 percent in Kalshi’s 2028 Republican nominee market.
  • Political positioning drew attention: NextPredict associated DeSantis’s surge with his break with Trump, though the supplied material does not establish that this alone caused the repricing.
  • Election margins and nomination prices diverged: Shapiro and Pritzker slipped despite substantial wins, while Ossoff gained most on the Democratic side. The summary provides no Democratic price levels for a fuller comparison.
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    NextPredict
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