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Tampa Bay simulation puts playoff and division chances above Kalshi prices

A 10,000-season simulation makes Tampa Bay a 96 percent playoff team against Kalshi at 81 cents, and prices the Atlantic Division at 59 percent against 32 cents on Kalshi. The simulation puts the Stanley Cup at 8.5 percent, against 6 cents on Kalshi and 5 cents on Polymarket, with 108.0 projected points as of November 4 at 5:40 PM ET.

A Tampa Bay Lightning season simulation assigns higher probabilities to a playoff berth, an Atlantic Division win and a Stanley Cup title than the corresponding market prices, according to PredictionMarketPicks.

The 10,000-season simulation projects 108.0 points for Tampa Bay. Its estimates are current as of November 4 at 5:40 PM ET; PredictionMarketPicks published the figures on Nov 4, 2026 at 11:30 PM ET.

Division outcome shows the largest gap

The model gives Tampa Bay a 96 percent probability of reaching the playoffs, compared with a Kalshi price of 81 cents. That places the simulation 15 percentage points above the probability implied by the quoted price.

For the Atlantic Division, the simulation assigns a 59 percent chance against 32 cents on Kalshi. The resulting 27-percentage-point difference is the largest model-to-market gap among the outcomes provided.

Stanley Cup estimates are closer

The simulation puts Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup probability at 8.5 percent. The corresponding prices are 6 cents on Kalshi and 5 cents on Polymarket, according to PredictionMarketPicks.

Those quotes imply gaps of 2.5 percentage points on Kalshi and 3.5 percentage points on Polymarket—smaller in absolute terms than the playoff and division differences.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The division market has the widest divergence: The model’s 59 percent estimate is 27 percentage points above Kalshi’s implied probability, versus a 15-point gap for a playoff berth.
  • Cup pricing differs across venues: Kalshi’s 6-cent quote is 1 cent above Polymarket’s 5-cent quote; both sit below the simulation’s 8.5 percent estimate.
  • These are snapshot comparisons: The supplied summary does not explain the simulation’s assumptions or provide contract-resolution terms. The gaps establish disagreement between estimates and prices, not which will prove more accurate.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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