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Rafael Lopez Aliaga’s Lima mayoral odds rise to 60.0% on Polymarket

The same PredictionBubbles movers board lists the contract on Rafael Lopez Aliaga winning the next Lima mayoral elections at 60.0%, up 9.2 points in 24 hours, on $216K…

A higher market probability

Rafael Lopez Aliaga’s contract to win the next Lima mayoral election stood at 60.0% on Polymarket, according to the PredictionBubbles movers board.

The summary, published Nov 5, 2026 · 12:24 AM ET, recorded a 9.2-point increase over 24 hours. That marks a shift toward Aliaga in the market’s pricing, rather than a reported election result.

Trading activity and reporting limits

The board listed $216K traded on the contract. The supplied summary does not specify the period covered by that trading figure.

No source links or further reporting accompanied the summary. It therefore offers no explanation for the price move or details about the contract’s resolution terms.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 60.0% price places Aliaga above the market’s even-probability threshold, but does not establish that he will win.
  • The 9.2-point daily increase is the key reported change; the supplied material identifies no catalyst.
  • The $216K trading figure provides activity context, but the summary does not establish current liquidity or the breadth of participation.
PredictionMarketsPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Polymarketpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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