Polymarket traders put November WTI $105 outcome at 86 percent
Polymarket says its finance board also prices gold hitting 4,500 dollars by end of December at 99 percent on the leading contract, with about 2 million dollars in volume on that market.
According to Polymarket, its market on WTI crude reaching $105 in November assigns the outcome an 86 percent probability, with $364,000 traded.
The figures were published on Nov 1, 2026, at 6:30 PM ET. They describe pricing in a prediction market, rather than confirmation that crude has reached the specified level.
Gold contract carries a higher probability
Polymarket also says its finance board assigns a 99 percent probability to gold reaching $4,500 by the end of December on the leading contract. That market has about $2 million in volume.
The gold contract therefore carries a higher implied probability than the WTI contract, while the gold market has more reported trading volume. Their deadlines differ: the crude outcome concerns November, while the gold outcome runs through the end of December.
What it means for prediction markets
- Both contracts price their threshold outcomes as highly likely, but neither probability constitutes a guaranteed result.
- The 86 percent WTI price and 99 percent gold price concern different assets, thresholds and deadlines; they are not directly interchangeable forecasts.
- Reported volume measures trading activity. The supplied figures alone do not establish either market’s current liquidity or the accuracy of its pricing.
Sources & attribution
- Published
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- Polymarketpolymarket.com
- Publisher
- https://polymarket.com
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