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Denver takes market lead despite trailing Kansas City late in fourth

DeFi Rate's live board, observed between 7:20 and 7:22 PM ET on November 1, had Kansas City leading 24 to 21 late in the fourth quarter but Denver priced at 65 percent with a first and goal at the Kansas City 4, up 15 points since kickoff while the Chiefs fell 38 points to 35 percent. Trading since kickoff reached 11 million dollars on the winner markets, with 9.2 million dollars traded on Kalshi in 24 hours and 1.6 million dollars on Polymarket US.

Denver Broncos win pricing reached 65 percent even as the Kansas City Chiefs held a 24 to 21 lead late in the fourth quarter, according to DeFi Rate. Denver had first and goal at the Kansas City 4 inside the final two minutes.

The live board was observed between 7:20 and 7:22 PM ET on November 1, 2026. The report was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET; the supplied snapshot does not establish the game’s outcome.

Late possession shifts the market balance

Denver’s implied win probability was up 15 percentage points since kickoff, while Kansas City’s had fallen 38 percentage points to 35 percent, according to DeFi Rate.

The pricing put Denver ahead in the winner markets despite its three-point deficit on the scoreboard. With Denver close to the end zone, the market favored the trailing team at that moment.

Trading reaches $11 million since kickoff

Trading on the winner markets totaled $11 million since kickoff, according to DeFi Rate. The outlet also listed $9.2 million traded on Kalshi over 24 hours and $1.6 million on Polymarket US.

Those figures carry different stated time windows: the overall total covers trading since kickoff, while Kalshi’s figure covers 24 hours. No time window was specified for the Polymarket US figure in the supplied summary.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Score and pricing diverged: Denver’s 65 percent probability reflected a market advantage despite Kansas City’s 24 to 21 scoreboard lead.
  • The snapshot is time-sensitive: The observed prices correspond to Denver’s late first-and-goal possession, not a confirmed result.
  • Volume comparisons need care: The $11 million since-kickoff total and the platform figures should not be treated as a directly comparable breakdown without matching time windows.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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