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Iran ceasefire continuation odds sink to 4 percent at deadline

NewsMarkets' November 4 prediction-market board shows the ceasefire continuation contract among the day's largest single moves, dropping 90 points to 4 percent as its November 4 deadline arrived.

A Polymarket US contract on whether the Iran ceasefire would continue through November 4 fell 90 points to 4 percent, according to NewsMarkets.

Sharp move as the deadline arrives

NewsMarkets’ November 4 prediction-market board placed the ceasefire continuation contract among the day’s largest single moves. The decline coincided with the arrival of its November 4 deadline.

The update was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 9:30 AM ET. It provides a snapshot of pricing on the deadline day, rather than a stated final settlement.

What the available information establishes

The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the decline or describe developments affecting the ceasefire. It also does not provide the contract’s resolution criteria or confirm its outcome.

The reported move therefore establishes a sharp change in market pricing, but does not independently establish whether the ceasefire continued through the specified date.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Deadline-day repricing: The 90-point fall to 4 percent marks a substantial shift in the contract’s implied likelihood as its November 4 deadline arrived.
  • Price is not resolution: The reported probability should be distinguished from a confirmed contract settlement.
  • Limited context: Without resolution criteria or an identified catalyst, the summary does not explain why the market moved.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    NewsMarkets
    Publisher
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    Source URL
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