Terminal
Infiniti Feed

San Francisco edges Buffalo in closely matched Super Bowl LXI markets

Rivo's board, updated November 4 at 8:39 AM ET, shows San Francisco as the Super Bowl LXI favorite on both venues, with the Buffalo Bills second and the Kansas City Chiefs at 8 percent on Kalshi and 9 percent on Polymarket. The same board prices the San Antonio Spurs as NBA championship favorites at 23 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

According to Rivo, the San Francisco 49ers hold the highest Super Bowl LXI probabilities on both Kalshi and Polymarket, narrowly ahead of the Buffalo Bills.

Football favorites differ slightly across venues

Rivo’s board, updated November 4 at 8:39 AM ET, puts San Francisco at 15 percent on Kalshi and 14 percent on Polymarket. Buffalo stands second at 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively—a one-percentage-point gap behind the leader on each venue.

The Kansas City Chiefs are priced at 8 percent on Kalshi and 9 percent on Polymarket, according to Rivo. Unlike San Francisco and Buffalo, Kansas City has a higher probability on Polymarket than on Kalshi.

Spurs top the basketball board

The same Rivo board lists the San Antonio Spurs as NBA championship favorites at 23 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The report was published November 4, 2026, at 11:00 AM ET; its probabilities reflect the earlier board update.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both venues agree on San Francisco and Buffalo’s order, but the one-percentage-point separation indicates a narrow lead rather than a dominant favorite.
  • Cross-venue differences for each of the three listed football teams amount to one percentage point, with Kansas City’s difference running in the opposite direction.
  • San Antonio’s identical 23 percent readings show agreement across the two venues on the NBA favorite. These snapshots do not establish how prices have moved over time.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Rivo
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Rivo”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related