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Polymarket loses volume ground to Kalshi despite stronger search demand

DeFi Rate's volume tracker put Polymarket's two exchanges at 17.2 percent of combined face-value volume, down from 93.8 percent in October 2024 and 24.3 percent in July 2026, though on a cash-paid basis Polymarket held 20.1 percent against Kalshi at 71.7 percent. Polymarket US filed nine CFTC filings between October 2 and October 26 amending seven deposit, rebate and referral programs to win traders back, while still leading in United States search demand.

Polymarket’s two exchanges accounted for 17.2 percent of combined Kalshi and Polymarket face-value trading volume in the 30 days before October 29, according to Gaming America, citing DeFi Rate’s volume tracker.

That share was down from 93.8 percent in October 2024 and 24.3 percent in July 2026. The figures show a substantial shift in the balance of trading activity between the platforms.

Incentive changes accompany the volume decline

The measurement method changes the picture. On a cash-paid basis, Polymarket’s share stood at 20.1 percent, compared with 71.7 percent for Kalshi, according to Gaming America. Those figures should be distinguished from the combined face-value volume comparison.

Polymarket US submitted nine CFTC filings between October 2 and October 26, amending seven deposit, rebate and referral programs in an effort to bring traders back. Despite its declining volume share, Polymarket continued to lead in United States search demand, according to Gaming America.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume definitions matter: Polymarket’s 17.2 percent face-value share and 20.1 percent cash-paid share measure activity differently and should not be treated as interchangeable.
  • Interest is not the same as trading: Polymarket’s United States search lead contrasts with its smaller share of reported volume.
  • Incentives are a development to watch: The nine filings document changes aimed at attracting traders, but the provided figures do not establish their effect on activity.
KalshiPolymarketCFTCInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Gaming America
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