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Cloudflare leads Polymarket earnings odds ahead of three after-hours releases

Cloudflare, Airbnb and Opendoor all report after the market closes on Thursday, November 5. Polymarket gives Cloudflare an 86 percent chance of beating its estimated adjusted earnings of 35 cents a share, against 55 percent for Airbnb and 29 percent for Opendoor.

Polymarket assigns Cloudflare an 86 percent probability of beating its estimated adjusted earnings of 35 cents a share, according to TipRanks. That puts it ahead of Airbnb and Opendoor in the platform’s earnings expectations.

All three companies are scheduled to report after the market closes on Thursday, November 5. The figures were reported on Nov 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, ahead of those releases.

A wide spread in earnings expectations

Airbnb’s probability of an earnings beat stands at 55 percent, according to TipRanks. That places its pricing much closer to an even split than Cloudflare’s.

Opendoor has the lowest implied chance of beating earnings among the three, at 29 percent. The supplied summary does not specify the earnings estimates used for either Airbnb or Opendoor.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Cloudflare is the strongest favorite: Its 86 percent probability reflects a substantially higher implied likelihood of a beat than the other two companies, but not certainty.
  • Expectations differ sharply: Airbnb’s 55 percent and Opendoor’s 29 percent put their earnings outcomes on opposite sides of the 50 percent mark.
  • Timing matters: These probabilities are a pre-release snapshot, with all three reports due after the close on November 5.
  • The benchmark is only partly specified: Cloudflare’s stated threshold is estimated adjusted earnings of 35 cents a share; the supplied material does not provide comparable thresholds for Airbnb or Opendoor.
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Sources & attribution

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    TipRanks
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