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Hegseth departure contract draws $496,000 as venue prices diverge

CoinStats lists the Hegseth contract among the busiest markets priced on both venues in its November 5 browse snapshot, updated at 13:50 UTC. The outcome is priced at 34 cents on Polymarket against 37 cents on Kalshi, a 3-cent gap between venues.

A prediction-market contract on whether Pete Hegseth will be out as Secretary of Defense by November 30 recorded $496,000 in trading over 24 hours, according to CoinStats. The outcome traded at 34 cents on Polymarket.

Two venues, different prices

CoinStats’ November 5 browse snapshot, updated at 13:50 UTC, showed the same outcome priced at 37 cents on Kalshi. That put Kalshi 3 cents above Polymarket.

The snapshot listed the Hegseth contract among the busiest markets priced on both venues. The supplied reporting was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 9:00 AM ET.

Activity is not confirmation

The figures describe trading activity and market pricing, rather than confirmation of a personnel change. The supplied material contains no reporting that Hegseth has left the role or that a departure has been announced.

The snapshot also offers no earlier prices for comparison. It therefore establishes a difference between venues at the reported observation, but not whether expectations of a departure were rising or falling.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Deadline matters: The contract concerns Hegseth being out as Secretary of Defense by November 30, not a departure at any later date.
  • Pricing differs across venues: Polymarket’s 34-cent price was below Kalshi’s 37-cent price, a 3-cent gap in the CoinStats snapshot.
  • Volume does not establish direction: The $496,000 traded over 24 hours indicates activity, but the supplied figures do not show how prices changed during that period.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    CoinStats
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