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Bitcoin markets favor $80,000 in November as volatility hedges unwind

Coinspeaker reports Bitcoin trades at 78,570 dollars after bouncing from an overnight low of 75,736 dollars, and traders price a dip to 75,000 dollars this month at 60.5 percent. Deribit's DVOL implied volatility index fell to 37.03 as options investors dropped the hedges they had bought for the midterms.

According to Coinspeaker, Polymarket traders put an 85.5 percent probability on Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in November, compared with 39.5 percent for $85,000. The pricing shows a substantial gap between expectations for the two upside thresholds.

A rebound with downside still in view

Coinspeaker’s update, published Nov 4, 2026 at 6:45 PM ET, put Bitcoin at $78,570 after a recovery from an overnight low of $75,736.

Despite that rebound, traders assigned a 60.5 percent probability to Bitcoin dipping to $75,000 this month. The market pricing therefore leaves room for both an advance toward $80,000 and another decline during November; those outcomes are not mutually exclusive.

Options hedges unwind

In the options market, Deribit’s DVOL implied volatility index fell to 37.03 as investors unwound hedges purchased for the midterms, according to Coinspeaker. That decline accompanied a prediction-market outlook that still placed meaningful probability on moves in both directions.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Upside expectations differ sharply by threshold: The $80,000 outcome stood at 85.5 percent, while $85,000 was priced at 39.5 percent.
  • Downside remains part of the outlook: The 60.5 percent probability of a dip to $75,000 can coexist with expectations of higher prices elsewhere in the month.
  • Volatility and direction are separate signals: DVOL’s decline to 37.03 reflects the reported options-hedging unwind, rather than establishing which Bitcoin price threshold will be reached.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Coinspeaker
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