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Bitcoin’s November price markets assign equal odds to opposing moves

Alpha Finance, in its live prediction market screener updated on November 4, shows the Bitcoin November market has traded 2.8 million dollars and resolves on December 1. The screener tracks 367 live markets across crypto, macro and geopolitics, ranking the largest market in each category by 24 hour volume.

According to Alpha Finance, Polymarket priced Bitcoin reaching 82,500 dollars in November at 76 percent, while a decline to 77,500 dollars also carried a 76 percent probability.

The matching probabilities place equal weight on two different price thresholds. They do not, by themselves, establish which level traders expect Bitcoin to reach first.

Volume and resolution timing

Alpha Finance’s live prediction-market screener, updated on November 4, showed 2.8 million dollars traded in the Bitcoin November market. The market resolves on December 1.

The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 7:45 PM ET. The figures represent that reported snapshot rather than a subsequent update.

The broader screener

The screener covers 367 live markets spanning crypto, macro and geopolitics, according to Alpha Finance. It ranks the largest market in each category by 24 hour volume.

That ranking measure is distinct from the reported 2.8 million dollars traded in the Bitcoin November market: the supplied summary does not identify that amount as 24 hour volume.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both thresholds carried a 76 percent probability. Those readings should not be treated as mutually exclusive outcomes without checking the market’s resolution terms.
  • The November price window and December 1 resolution date are separate details to track when interpreting the contracts.
  • The supplied material does not include the full resolution rules or underlying market links, limiting verification of precisely how either threshold is assessed.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Alpha Finance
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