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Peltola pricing diverges across markets as Alaska Senate count continues

The Prediction Network, in its midterm results update on November 4, says Peltola leads narrowly with about three quarters of votes counted in a race that ranked-choice tabulation will decide if no candidate tops 50 percent. The Alaska Senate race is one of three races still open on its board.

Mary Peltola’s Alaska Senate contract stood at about 95 percent on Kalshi versus 88 percent on Polymarket US, a 7-point difference, according to The Prediction Network’s midterm results update on November 4.

The update, published Nov 4, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, described Peltola as narrowly ahead with about three quarters of votes counted. The market pricing gap accompanied a race that remained unresolved.

Count and tabulation remain in focus

Ranked-choice tabulation will determine the outcome if no candidate exceeds 50 percent, according to The Prediction Network. Peltola’s narrow lead in the reported count therefore does not, by itself, establish the final result.

Alaska’s Senate contest was one of three races still open on The Prediction Network’s board. The supplied summary does not identify the other two races or explain the difference between the venues’ prices.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Different prices, unresolved outcome: Kalshi’s roughly 95 percent reading and Polymarket US’s 88 percent reading reflect a 7-point gap, not a settled election result.
  • Remaining votes matter: With about three quarters counted and Peltola narrowly ahead, further counting remains relevant to the contracts.
  • The threshold matters: Whether any candidate tops 50 percent determines whether ranked-choice tabulation will decide the race.
KalshiPolymarketSenateMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    The Prediction Network
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