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Polymarket traders put 98 percent odds on no 2026 Fed cuts

Polymarket's Fed board hosts 500 active markets with more than 86.3 million dollars in combined trading volume. The most active is the count of Fed rate cuts in 2026, where traders assign a 98 percent chance to no cuts at all during the year.

Polymarket traders assign a 98 percent probability to the Federal Reserve making no rate cuts in 2026, according to the supplied summary dated Nov 4, 2026, at 7:45 PM ET.

The contract tracking the number of Fed rate cuts in 2026 is the most active market on Polymarket’s Fed board. Its pricing points to a strong consensus around an outcome of zero cuts for the year.

Activity across the Fed board

The board contains 500 active markets, with combined trading volume exceeding 86.3 million dollars. That figure covers the full board, rather than just the leading rate-cut contract.

The summary does not provide the leading contract’s individual volume or a history of its pricing. It therefore establishes the current probability and activity ranking, but not how quickly expectations reached this level.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A heavily favored outcome: The 98 percent price leaves little implied probability for any outcome involving a 2026 rate cut, without making zero cuts certain.
  • Volume has a broader scope: The more than 86.3 million dollars in trading volume belongs to all 500 active Fed markets; it cannot be treated as turnover in the rate-cut count market alone.
  • A snapshot, not a trend: Without earlier prices, the supplied figures do not show whether confidence in zero cuts has recently strengthened or weakened.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    Polymarketpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
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