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Bitcoin short-window odds sit near even across two prediction venues

DeFi Rate, observing the market at 7:20 PM ET on November 4, says the Kalshi target for the window is 80,631.87 dollars and both venues settle on the CF Benchmarks index. Bitcoin finished up in 593 of its last 1,230 fifteen-minute windows on Kalshi, or 48 percent of the time.

DeFi Rate observed near-even pricing for Bitcoin’s 15-minute contract closing at 7:30 PM ET on November 4, 2026. At 7:20 PM ET, Up was priced at 50 cents on Kalshi and 51 percent on Polymarket US.

Pricing and settlement

The Kalshi target for the window was $80,631.87, according to DeFi Rate. Both venues use the CF Benchmarks index to settle their contracts.

The observation came 10 minutes before the window closed. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET; the supplied summary does not give the contract’s final outcome.

Recent results offer context

Bitcoin finished higher in 593 of its last 1,230 fifteen-minute windows on Kalshi, according to DeFi Rate. That represented 48 percent of the time.

That historical share was below the Up pricing observed on both venues. It describes past windows, however, rather than establishing the probability of an upward finish in this particular contract.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A narrow pricing difference: Kalshi’s 50-cent Up price and Polymarket US’s 51 percent reading put the two venues close together at the observation time.
  • A shared settlement reference: Both contracts settle using the CF Benchmarks index; the reported Kalshi target was $80,631.87.
  • A snapshot, not a result: The available pricing was recorded at 7:20 PM ET for the window ending at 7:30 PM ET. No final settlement outcome was supplied.
  • Historical context has limits: The 48 percent upward-finish rate covers the last 1,230 Kalshi windows, not a forecast for the reported window.
KalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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