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Bitcoin prediction market centers near 78,000 dollars for November 2

CoinLab's November 1 brief puts the Polymarket median for Bitcoin on Monday, November 2 at 77,976 dollars, with half of outcomes between 76,727 and 79,205 dollars. Polymarket gives a 9 percent chance to a price below 76,000 dollars by Monday, and the brief's base case is a sideways range of 76,500 to 79,000 dollars.

According to CoinLab’s November 1 brief, the Polymarket median for Bitcoin on Monday, November 2 is 77,976 dollars. The brief was published on Nov 1, 2026 at 6:45 PM ET.

Market distribution and downside odds

Half of the outcomes fall between 76,727 and 79,205 dollars, according to CoinLab. That interval describes the middle of the distribution, rather than a guaranteed trading range.

Polymarket assigns a 9 percent probability to Bitcoin closing below 76,000 dollars by Monday. The estimate places that downside outcome outside the market’s central expectations, without ruling it out.

CoinLab’s base case

CoinLab’s own base case is sideways movement within a range of 76,500 to 79,000 dollars. That forecast overlaps substantially with the market’s middle-half interval, though its lower and upper boundaries are both below the corresponding Polymarket figures.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 77,976-dollar median is a central estimate, not a commitment to a particular closing price.
  • The 9 percent probability applies specifically to a close below 76,000 dollars; it should not be read as the probability of every downside scenario.
  • CoinLab’s 76,500-to-79,000-dollar base case and Polymarket’s 76,727-to-79,205-dollar middle-half interval are distinct measures, despite their overlap.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    CoinLab
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