Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Low-priced Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts deliver surprise Yes settlements

OddsDrift, in its settled and surprised update at 22:38 UTC on November 4, lists a Polymarket Bitcoin price contract that was priced at 8 cents about 24 hours earlier settling Yes on 229,000 dollars, and an Ethereum price contract priced at 9 cents settling Yes on 72,000 dollars. The tracker counts 296 upsets, contracts priced at 15 cents or less or 85 cents or more the day before, in 30 days.

Two Polymarket cryptocurrency price contracts settled Yes after trading at single-digit cent prices roughly a day earlier, according to OddsDrift. Its update at 22:38 UTC on November 4 highlighted the Bitcoin and Ethereum outcomes as surprises.

Two low-priced contracts resolve Yes

The Bitcoin price contract had been priced at 8 cents about 24 hours before settling Yes on 229,000 dollars, according to OddsDrift.

The Ethereum price contract had been priced at 9 cents before settling Yes on 72,000 dollars. The supplied summary does not specify what those dollar amounts represent or provide the contracts’ precise settlement conditions.

A broader tally of unexpected outcomes

OddsDrift counted 296 upsets over 30 days. Its classification covers contracts priced at 15 cents or less, or 85 cents or more, the day before settlement.

Both cryptocurrency contracts fall within the low-price side of that definition. The summary provides no total number of settled contracts over the period, so the tally alone cannot establish how frequently upsets occurred.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 8-cent and 9-cent prices show that a low-priced Yes outcome can still settle Yes; neither price implied impossibility.
  • The 296-upset count needs a denominator before readers can assess the frequency of unexpected settlements.
  • Without the exact contract terms and clarification of the dollar amounts, these results should not be interpreted as evidence that Bitcoin or Ethereum reached those prices.
PolymarketBitcoinEthereumInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    OddsDrift
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to OddsDrift”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related