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Thunder championship contracts show widest NBA venue gap in Rivo snapshot

Rivo reports its November 4, 1:58 a.m. ET cross-venue read priced Oklahoma City at 12.5 cents on Polymarket and 19 cents on Gemini to win the NBA championship, a 6.5-point gap. Miami Heat was next among NBA championship outcomes at 5 points, priced at 2 cents on Kalshi against 7 cents on Gemini, and a gap only pays after both venues fees and settlement rules are accounted for.

Oklahoma City Thunder contracts to win the NBA championship were priced at 12.5 cents on Polymarket and 19 cents on Gemini in Rivo’s November 4, 1:58 a.m. ET comparison. The difference was 6.5 points, according to Rivo.

The snapshot, published on Nov 4, 2026 at 2:30 AM ET, highlights how prices for the same championship outcome can differ across prediction-market venues.

Miami follows Oklahoma City

Miami Heat had the next-largest gap among NBA championship outcomes in the comparison, according to Rivo. Its championship contract stood at 2 cents on Kalshi and 7 cents on Gemini, a 5-point difference.

Gemini carried the higher price in both comparisons. The lower-priced venue differed: Polymarket for Oklahoma City and Kalshi for Miami.

Price differences are only the starting point

The quoted spreads do not by themselves establish a profitable opportunity. As Rivo noted, any payoff from a cross-venue gap depends on accounting for fees at both venues and their settlement rules.

Those qualifications matter when interpreting the 6.5-point Thunder spread and the 5-point Heat spread: the headline differences describe quoted prices, not net returns.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Venue selection changes the displayed probability: Oklahoma City’s championship price differed by 6.5 points between Polymarket and Gemini at the recorded time.
  • The divergence extended beyond one team: Miami’s 5-point gap involved Kalshi and Gemini.
  • Costs and contract terms remain decisive: Both venues’ fees and settlement rules must be considered before treating a quoted gap as a payable spread.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Rivo
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