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Democratic sweep odds climb past 90 percent as results arrive

FinanceFeeds reports Polymarket priced a Democratic sweep of Congress at about 76 percent on Election Day, rising above 90 percent as results emerged, while Kalshi priced the same outcome near 75 percent before the move. Polymarket's main balance-of-power market had drawn about 61 million dollars cumulatively, against more than 100 million dollars on Kalshi's corresponding contracts.

Polymarket’s implied probability of a Democratic sweep of Congress rose above 90 percent as midterm results emerged, up from about 76 percent on Election Day, according to FinanceFeeds.

The report, published Nov 4, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET, describes a sharp shift in pricing as results arrived. The figures reflect market expectations, not confirmation of the congressional outcome.

Pricing and trading activity

Before the move, Kalshi priced the same outcome near 75 percent, according to FinanceFeeds. That put the two platforms’ initial estimates close together; the supplied summary does not give a later Kalshi price.

Polymarket’s main balance-of-power market had attracted about 61 million dollars in cumulative trading. Kalshi’s corresponding contracts had recorded more than 100 million dollars, according to FinanceFeeds.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Results drove a substantial repricing: Polymarket moved from about 76 percent on Election Day to above 90 percent as results emerged.
  • The cross-platform comparison is incomplete: Kalshi’s earlier price was near Polymarket’s, but no updated Kalshi figure is provided.
  • Trading totals differ in scope: The reported activity covers Polymarket’s main balance-of-power market and Kalshi’s corresponding contracts, rather than necessarily the sweep outcome alone.
KalshiPolymarketCongressElectionsMidtermsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    FinanceFeedsfinancefeeds.com
    Publisher
    https://financefeeds.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to FinanceFeeds”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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