Democratic House bets lead Polymarket’s $16.2 million large-trade tally
Rivo reports its Polymarket tape, updated at 2:21 a.m. ET on November 4, counted 16.2 million dollars in whale money across 1,126 large trades in 24 hours, with 206 open bets from winning wallets still unsettled. Democratic House control drew the most large-trade money at 5.8 million dollars across 291 trades, ahead of Republican House control at 3.3 million dollars.
Polymarket recorded $16.2 million in whale money across 1,126 large trades over 24 hours, according to Rivo. Its tape was updated at 2:21 a.m. ET on November 4.
House control attracts the largest flows
Democratic House control accounted for the largest amount of large-trade money: $5.8 million across 291 trades, according to Rivo.
Republican House control followed with $3.3 million. Those figures describe money associated with large trades, rather than the market-implied probability of either outcome.
Winning wallets retain unsettled bets
Rivo also counted 206 open bets from winning wallets that remained unsettled. The supplied summary does not identify how those bets were distributed across markets.
The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 4:00 AM ET. Its figures reflect the earlier tape update, not a final tally of settled outcomes.
What it means for prediction markets
- Democratic House control led the reported large-trade activity. Its $5.8 million total exceeded the $3.3 million associated with Republican House control.
- Flow is not a probability measure. The summary provides no contract prices or price changes, limiting conclusions about how the trading affected market expectations.
- Settlement remains distinct from wallet history. The 206 unsettled bets from winning wallets are still open positions, not confirmed successful outcomes.
Sources & attribution
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- Rivo
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Rivo”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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