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Pelicans overturn market expectations with 121 to 99 win over Hawks

DeFi Rate's NBA finals board for Sunday, November 1 shows New Orleans defeating Atlanta 121 to 99 after the Pelicans had been priced at just 35 percent to win at tipoff on Kalshi and Polymarket US. The result settles the game winner contracts against the pre-game favorite.

New Orleans defeated Atlanta 121 to 99 on Sunday, November 1, despite entering the game with a 35 percent chance of victory in prediction-market pricing, according to DeFi Rate.

The Pelicans’ win settled the game-winner contracts against the pre-game favorite, the Hawks. The result put the lower-priced side ahead on the scoreboard and on the winning side of those contracts.

Tipoff pricing meets the final score

DeFi Rate’s NBA finals board showed New Orleans priced at just 35 percent to win at tipoff on Kalshi and Polymarket US. That figure describes expectations when play began, rather than any subsequent in-game pricing.

The report, published Nov 1, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET, recorded the final score and the upset relative to those opening expectations. The supplied summary does not include trading volumes or changes in prices during the game.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The underdog prevailed: New Orleans won despite its 35 percent tipoff probability on Kalshi and Polymarket US.
  • The outcome resolved the winner contracts: Settlement went against Atlanta, the pre-game favorite, according to DeFi Rate.
  • One result has limited explanatory power: The upset alone does not establish whether the tipoff probability was well calibrated.
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Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to DeFi Rate”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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