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Weather contracts span 65 cities as Kalshi hosts most listings

PredictMarketCap tracks 200 active weather prediction markets across 65 cities, covering temperature thresholds, rainfall and snowfall. Most of the markets are listed on Kalshi, typically cover a 3 to 10 day forecast window, and resolve on official weather station data.

Weather prediction markets now include 200 active contracts across 65 cities, according to PredictMarketCap. Its tally covers markets tied to temperature thresholds, rainfall and snowfall.

Coverage and timing

Most of the tracked markets are listed on Kalshi, according to PredictMarketCap. The summary does not provide a numerical breakdown of listings by platform.

The contracts typically cover a 3 to 10 day forecast window. That places the usual focus on near-term weather outcomes rather than longer-range conditions.

How outcomes are determined

According to PredictMarketCap, the markets resolve using official weather station data. For readers assessing these contracts, the settlement basis is therefore a station’s recorded conditions, rather than a general description of weather across a city.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Market breadth: The 200 active markets span 65 cities and three weather categories: temperature thresholds, rainfall and snowfall.
  • Platform concentration: Kalshi hosts most of the tracked listings, though the summary does not specify its exact share.
  • Timing and resolution: The typical 3 to 10 day window and reliance on official weather station data are central to understanding what each contract measures.
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Sources & attribution

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    PredictMarketCap
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