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September snapshot shows prediction trading concentrated on Kalshi and Polymarket

A Medium analysis citing a September 3 DefiLlama snapshot says Kalshi and Polymarket together accounted for 94.7 percent of the prediction market trading volume DefiLlama tracked over the previous 30 days. The snapshot counted both Polymarket exchanges and left out some off-chain rivals, and the analysis notes smaller venues such as Limitless and Predict.fun are trying short-duration and yield-bearing formats.

Kalshi and Polymarket together represented 94.7 percent of prediction market trading volume tracked by DefiLlama over a 30-day period, according to a Medium analysis citing a September 3 snapshot.

The figure describes activity within DefiLlama’s tracked venues, rather than a comprehensive measure of the entire prediction market industry. The snapshot included both Polymarket exchanges but excluded some off-chain competitors.

Coverage shapes the concentration figure

Those boundaries matter when interpreting the two platforms’ combined share. The 94.7 percent figure establishes their dominance within the measured sample; it does not establish their share of trading across every venue.

The analysis, published Nov 1, 2026, also draws on a September 3 snapshot. Its volume measure covers the previous 30 days, not trading conditions at publication.

Smaller venues explore different formats

According to Medium, smaller platforms including Limitless and Predict.fun are experimenting with short-duration and yield-bearing formats.

That points to competition on product design alongside the concentration in tracked volume. The supplied summary does not quantify those venues’ activity or indicate whether their formats have changed the leading platforms’ combined share.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Coverage is essential context: The 94.7 percent share applies to DefiLlama’s tracked volume, with both Polymarket exchanges included and some off-chain rivals omitted.
  • The measurement is backward-looking: A September 3 snapshot covering the preceding 30 days should not be read as a November market-share estimate.
  • Product experimentation remains a separate signal: Limitless and Predict.fun are testing alternative formats, but the summary provides no evidence of how much trading those efforts have attracted.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Medium
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