Kalshi’s December rate ladder concentrates expectations between 4.00 and 4.25 percent

Kalshi’s market for the fed funds rate after the December 9 meeting prices a finish above 4.00 percent at 73 percent, according to Kalshi. The market has traded 692,067 dollars.

Three thresholds frame the outlook

The figures, published Nov 1, 2026 · 9:15 PM ET, show a sharp difference between the ladder’s lower and upper thresholds. A rate above 3.75 percent is priced at 98 percent, while a rate above 4.25 percent is priced at 3 percent.

Those prices concentrate the implied outlook above 4.00 percent but no higher than 4.25 percent. The gap between those two threshold prices is 70 percentage points.

The supplied figures describe expectations for the rate’s level after the meeting, rather than the size or direction of a policy change. They do not include a current rate or earlier market prices against which to measure a shift.

What it means for prediction markets

• The thresholds are cumulative: A rate above 4.25 percent would also be above 4.00 percent and 3.75 percent, so the three prices should not be added as separate outcomes.
• The upper threshold carries little priced probability: The 3 percent price above 4.25 percent contrasts with 73 percent above 4.00 percent.
• Volume provides context, not certainty: The reported 692,067 dollars traded measures activity; it does not establish the accuracy of the market’s expectations.