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Kalshi recession odds show a higher threshold of concern for 2027

Sikt Intelligence reports its November 4 update priced a recession in 2027 at 22 percent on Kalshi, well above its 2026 recession pricing of 6.5 percent on Kalshi and 5.5 percent on Polymarket. Kalshi resolves the 2027 market on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the fourth quarter of 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

According to Sikt Intelligence’s November 4 update, Kalshi priced a recession in 2027 at 22 percent, compared with 6.5 percent for a recession in 2026.

The update, published Nov 4, 2026 · 2:30 AM ET, also put Polymarket’s pricing for a 2026 recession at 5.5 percent. Both platforms therefore showed lower recession pricing for 2026 than Kalshi did for 2027.

The resolution window matters

According to Sikt Intelligence, Kalshi’s 2027 contract resolves based on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, using Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

The qualifying period runs from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the fourth quarter of 2027. That means the contract’s measurement window begins before the calendar year named in the market.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The year comparison is substantial: Kalshi’s 22 percent pricing for 2027 stands above its 6.5 percent pricing for 2026.
  • The platform comparison is narrower: For 2026, Kalshi’s 6.5 percent pricing compares with 5.5 percent on Polymarket.
  • Resolution terms shape the exposure: The 2027 contract concerns a specific two-quarter GDP test, with a window starting in the fourth quarter of 2026. The supplied update does not specify the resolution terms for the 2026 markets.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Sikt Intelligence
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