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December Fed hike odds show differing readings in prediction market snapshot

PredictionMarketsPicks says its tracker, updated November 1 at 6:00 PM ET, shows Kalshi and Polymarket both at 70.5 percent for a hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, with the current target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent.

PredictionMarketsPicks puts a rate increase ahead of an unchanged decision at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, though the supplied headline and tracker summary give different probabilities for Kalshi.

Its headline assigns a 72 percent probability to a December Fed rate hike on Kalshi and 28 percent to a hold. The item was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 6:30 PM ET.

Tracker shows matching odds across platforms

According to PredictionMarketsPicks, its tracker updated November 1 at 6:00 PM ET places the probability of a hike at 70.5 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The summary lists the current target range as 3.75 to 4.00 percent.

The supplied material does not explain the difference between Kalshi’s headline figure and the tracker reading. With no source links or full report provided, the discrepancy cannot be resolved from the available information.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both reported readings favor a hike over no hike at the December 8-9 meeting, but they should not be treated as a single consistent snapshot.
  • The tracker summary shows identical hike probabilities on Kalshi and Polymarket; it provides no basis for identifying a pricing gap between them.
  • The 28 percent hold probability belongs to the headline’s Kalshi figures. The summary does not supply a corresponding hold probability for either platform.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    PredictionMarketsPicks
    Publisher
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    Source URL
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