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Crane pulls far ahead of Nez in Kalshi’s Arizona market

Democrat Jonathan Nez falls 27.2 points to 3.8 percent in the same Kalshi market, with 738,000 dollars traded.

A sharp shift toward Crane

Eli Crane’s probability in Kalshi’s Arizona 2nd district House race market reached 96.1 percent after a 26.1-point increase, according to PredictionBubbles. The report was published Nov 6, 2026, at 9:30 AM ET.

PredictionBubbles reported 746,000 dollars traded alongside Crane’s market figures.

Nez moves lower

Democrat Jonathan Nez moved in the opposite direction in the same Kalshi market. His probability fell 27.2 points to 3.8 percent, according to PredictionBubbles, with 738,000 dollars traded.

The figures show a pronounced market preference for Crane, but the supplied summary does not identify what prompted the repricing or provide an election result. The probabilities describe market pricing, not a confirmed outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Crane’s 96.1 percent probability and Nez’s 3.8 percent place the two candidates at sharply different market-implied chances.
  • The reported changes were substantial in both directions: Crane gained 26.1 points while Nez lost 27.2 points.
  • The summary provides no measurement window for those changes or trading totals, limiting conclusions about the speed and cause of the move.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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