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Democratic presidential odds differ by two points across prediction exchanges

Republicans were priced at 32.5 percent on Polymarket against 34.5 percent on Kalshi in PolymarketTrader's November 5 comparison of 8 events listed on both exchanges. Across 50 matched outcomes the average gap between the two venues was 1.0 percentage points.

Comparing the 2028 prices

Democrats were priced at 67.5 percent on Polymarket and 65.5 percent on Kalshi to win the 2028 presidential election, according to PolymarketTrader’s November 5 comparison. The difference between the venues was 2 percentage points.

Republican prices showed the reverse pattern: 32.5 percent on Polymarket versus 34.5 percent on Kalshi. Both exchanges therefore favored a Democratic victory, but Kalshi assigned Republicans a higher probability than Polymarket did.

The broader comparison

The presidential prices were part of PolymarketTrader’s comparison of 8 events listed on both exchanges. Across 50 matched outcomes, the average difference between the venues was 1.0 percentage points.

The 2-point presidential gap was twice that reported average. The comparison was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 12:45 AM ET; the supplied summary does not identify the other events or provide their individual prices.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Direction matched, pricing differed: Both venues favored Democrats for 2028, with Polymarket assigning them the higher probability.
  • The presidential gap exceeded the average: Its 2-percentage-point difference compared with 1.0 percentage points across the 50 matched outcomes.
  • The snapshot has limits: The supplied figures do not establish why the venues differed or whether that difference persisted.
KalshiPolymarketElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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