Recession contracts diverge as Polymarket and Kalshi use different triggers
The 2 point gap reflects partly different resolution rules in PolymarketTrader's November 5 comparison: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call, while Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
A pricing gap with a rules distinction
Contracts on a United States recession by the end of 2026 are priced at 4.5 percent on Polymarket and 2.5 percent on Kalshi, according to PolymarketTrader’s November 5 comparison.
The report, published Nov 5, 2026 at 12:45 AM ET, identifies a 2 point gap. That difference partly reflects the contracts’ distinct resolution rules rather than simply different assessments of the same outcome.
What qualifies as a recession
Polymarket’s contract resolves Yes if there are two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call, according to PolymarketTrader. It therefore includes an alternative trigger beyond the GDP condition.
Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters. An NBER recession call alone would not satisfy that contract’s stated condition.
What it means for prediction markets
- The prices are not directly equivalent: Polymarket’s 4.5 percent and Kalshi’s 2.5 percent attach to different resolution criteria.
- An NBER call matters differently: It can trigger a Yes resolution on Polymarket but does not independently qualify on Kalshi.
- The gap needs careful interpretation: PolymarketTrader attributes it partly to the rules; the comparison does not establish how much reflects other differences in market expectations.
Sources & attribution
- Published
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- PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
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- https://polymarket.com
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