Cavaliers defeat Bucks as 76 percent favorite delivers on market expectations
DeFi Rate's NBA finals board for Sunday, November 1 shows Cleveland defeating Milwaukee 136 to 111, in line with the market that had priced the Cavaliers at 76 percent to win at tipoff. The winner contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket US settle on the final score.
Cleveland defeated Milwaukee 136 to 111 on Sunday, November 1, according to DeFi Rate’s NBA finals board. The Cavaliers had been priced at 76 percent to win at tipoff.
Final score confirms the favored outcome
The result aligned with the market’s favored outcome: Cleveland entered the game with a substantially higher implied chance of winning than losing. The 136 to 111 finish confirmed that outcome, though one result alone does not establish whether the pregame probability was well calibrated.
DeFi Rate’s update was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 8:15 PM ET. Its board paired the completed game’s score with the market pricing at tipoff.
Winner contracts turn on the result
According to DeFi Rate, winner contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket US settle on the final score. For those contracts, the decisive information is Cleveland’s victory, rather than how heavily the market favored the Cavaliers before play began.
What it means for prediction markets
- The favorite won: Cleveland’s victory was consistent with its 76 percent implied win probability at tipoff, but that price did not make the outcome certain.
- Settlement follows the score: The reported 136 to 111 result determines the winning side for the winner contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket US.
- Calibration remains a broader question: This game supplies one observation, not enough evidence on its own to assess the accuracy of market probabilities.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- DeFi Ratedefirate.com
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- https://defirate.com
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