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Bitcoin's end-of-2026 $75,000 to $80,000 band trades 14.1 points apart across venues, at 2c on Polymarket US against 16.1c on Kalshi

Rivo's cross-venue gap board, read Nov. 5 at 8:21 AM ET, lists that Bitcoin band as the widest live gap it tracks, ahead of the $85,000 to $90,000 band at 1c on…

The contract on whether the US will invade Iran before 2027 was the most-traded market on World Monitor’s live board, with $77.9M traded and a displayed probability of 12.5% on Polymarket.

Trading activity and scope

According to World Monitor’s board, the Nov. 5 reading at 1:22 PM UTC covered 50 tracked markets across Polymarket and Kalshi. Those markets had total traded volume of $214.3M.

The Iran contract ranked first within that tracked group. The ranking describes the board’s coverage, rather than establishing which contract led trading across every market on either platform.

The supplied update was published Nov 5, 2026, at 8:24 AM ET. It provides a snapshot of the contract’s probability and volume, but no earlier readings to establish whether the 12.5% figure had risen or fallen.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume and probability tell different stories: The contract led the tracked group in trading activity, while its displayed probability remained 12.5%.
  • The deadline matters: The contract concerns a US invasion of Iran before 2027, not an open-ended assessment of conflict risk.
  • Resolution details are absent: The supplied material does not include the contract’s criteria for what would qualify as an invasion.
PredictionMarketsKalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source 1
    Kalshikalshi.com
    Publisher
    https://kalshi.com/markets
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.
  2. Source 2
    Polymarketpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to Kalshi”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

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