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Peltola’s Alaska Senate contracts show sharp pricing split across venues

Rivo reports its November 4, 2:43 a.m. ET cross-venue read priced Mary Peltola at 71.7 cents on Polymarket and 83 cents on Gemini to win the Alaska Senate race, an 11.3-point gap that was among the widest it tracked. Dan Sullivan was next in the same race at 9 points, priced at 20 cents on Polymarket US against 29 cents on Gemini, and a gap only pays after both venues fees and settlement rules are accounted for.

Rivo’s November 4, 2:43 a.m. ET comparison found an 11.3-point difference between venues on contracts for Mary Peltola to win the Alaska Senate race. Polymarket priced that outcome at 71.7 cents, versus 83 cents on Gemini.

The difference ranked among the widest in Rivo’s tracking. The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 3:00 AM ET.

Two candidates, different venue comparisons

Dan Sullivan followed with a 9-point gap in the same race, according to Rivo. His contract stood at 20 cents on Polymarket US and 29 cents on Gemini.

Gemini therefore carried the higher price in both comparisons. The other venue differed, however: Rivo identified Polymarket for Peltola and Polymarket US for Sullivan.

What the price gaps establish

The figures capture a cross-venue pricing difference at a specific time, rather than establishing a net payoff. As Rivo noted, whether a gap pays depends on accounting for both venues’ fees and settlement rules.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Peltola’s spread was larger: Her 11.3-point difference exceeded Sullivan’s 9-point gap in the reported snapshot.
  • Venue identity matters: The Peltola comparison used Polymarket, while Sullivan’s used Polymarket US; both were measured against Gemini.
  • Headline spreads are not net returns: Fees and settlement rules must be accounted for before either difference can be treated as a payable opportunity.
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