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Mamdani tops Time recognition market with different prices across platforms

ArbTrader lists the contract among the other markets priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Each contract pays 1 dollar if the outcome occurs.

Zohran Mamdani leads the market for Time Person of the Year in 2026, with his contract priced at 31 cents on Kalshi and 28 cents on Polymarket, according to ArbTrader.

The update, published Nov 6, 2026 · 8:30 AM ET, places the same outcome at different prices across the two prediction-market platforms.

One outcome, two market prices

ArbTrader includes the contract in its listing of markets available on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Each contract pays 1 dollar if the outcome occurs.

The reported lead concerns market pricing, not a decision by Time. The supplied material does not include prices for other candidates or further details about the contracts.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Cross-platform pricing: Mamdani’s reported price is higher on Kalshi than on Polymarket, despite both contracts referencing the same named outcome.
  • Limited comparison: The prices and 1 dollar payout alone do not establish whether the contracts have identical settlement terms or whether a price gap can be traded profitably.
  • Dated snapshot: These figures describe the published update, rather than a confirmed outcome or a subsequent market price.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    ArbTrader
    Publisher
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