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Iran invasion odds slip as contract leads tracked market volume

World Monitor ranks the contract as the most traded of its 50 tracked Polymarket and Kalshi markets on November 6, down from 12.5 percent in an earlier same-day reading. The market resolves on January 1, 2027.

The Polymarket contract on the United States invading Iran before 2027 was priced at 11.5 percent, according to World Monitor’s November 6 report, published at 9:15 AM ET.

The contract had drawn 78.1 million dollars in trading volume. World Monitor ranked it as the most traded among the 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets it tracks.

Price declines within the day

The 11.5 percent reading was down from 12.5 percent in an earlier same-day observation. That represents a decline of 1 percentage point in the contract’s implied probability.

The reported ranking applies to World Monitor’s tracked set of 50 markets, rather than establishing a volume ranking across every contract on either platform.

Resolution date

The contract concerns a United States invasion of Iran before 2027 and resolves on January 1, 2027. The supplied summary does not include the detailed criteria used to determine whether that event has occurred.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The same-day move from 12.5 percent to 11.5 percent indicates a lower market-implied probability at the later observation; the summary provides no explanation for the shift.
  • Trading volume of 78.1 million dollars places the contract first in World Monitor’s tracked group, but volume alone does not establish the accuracy of its pricing.
  • January 1, 2027 is the stated resolution date. Without the full resolution rules, readers cannot assess precisely what actions would qualify as an invasion.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
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