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December Fed hike contract climbs to 78.5 percent on Polymarket

World Monitor ranks the contract among the 15 most traded of its 50 tracked Polymarket and Kalshi markets on November 6, up from 69.5 percent in an earlier same-day reading. The market closes on December 9, 2026.

A Polymarket contract tied to the Fed increasing interest rates by 25 basis points after its December 2026 meeting was priced at 78.5 percent, according to World Monitor. The report was published on November 6, 2026, at 9:15 AM ET.

Pricing moves higher

The contract had been priced at 69.5 percent in an earlier reading on the same day. The latest figure represents a rise of 9 percentage points, indicating a higher market-implied likelihood of the specified rate increase.

World Monitor reported $16.2 million in trading volume for the contract. It ranked among the 15 most traded markets in the outlet’s November 6 monitoring set, which covers 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi.

December closing date

The market closes on December 9, 2026. Its stated outcome concerns a specific move—a 25-basis-point increase after the December 2026 meeting—rather than a broader assessment of the Fed’s policy direction.

The supplied summary does not identify what drove the same-day price increase or provide the contract’s detailed resolution criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The move from 69.5 percent to 78.5 percent marks a 9-percentage-point increase in the contract’s implied probability, not confirmation of a Fed decision.
  • The top-15 trading rank applies to World Monitor’s 50 tracked markets, not necessarily to all contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi.
  • December 9, 2026, is the stated market closing date; the supplied material does not establish separate settlement timing.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
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