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Newsom nomination contracts show a ten-cent gap across prediction platforms

ArbTrader lists the contract among the other markets priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Each contract pays 1 dollar if the outcome occurs.

Gavin Newsom’s pricing differs by 10 points between Kalshi and Polymarket in the market for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, according to ArbTrader.

The Newsom contract stands at 13 cents on Kalshi and 3 cents on Polymarket. Each contract pays 1 dollar if the outcome occurs.

Two prices for the nomination outcome

ArbTrader lists the contract among other markets priced on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The supplied report was published on Nov 6, 2026, at 9:15 AM ET.

The summary provides no explanation for the difference and includes no source links. It also supplies no trading-volume, liquidity or contract-resolution details with which to assess the gap.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Against a 1-dollar outcome payout, the quoted prices translate into price-implied probabilities of 13% on Kalshi and 3% on Polymarket—a 10-percentage-point difference.
  • The comparison shows a substantial cross-platform pricing disparity, but the supplied information does not establish whether traders could execute at those prices.
  • Without detailed contract terms or trading costs, the gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    ArbTrader
    Publisher
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    Source URL
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