Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Republican 2028 party pricing shows largest gap between Polymarket and Kalshi

Across 10 events listed on both exchanges and 54 matched outcomes, the average price gap is 0.9 percentage points in the November 1 comparison of public Polymarket and Kalshi data.

Polymarket and Kalshi showed their largest pricing divergence in the 2028 party market, according to PolymarketTrader. Republicans were priced at 34.5 percent on Polymarket, compared with 40.5 percent on Kalshi.

A standout difference in a broader comparison

The November 1 comparison used public data from both exchanges. It covered 10 events available on both platforms and 54 matched outcomes, with an average price gap of 0.9 percentage points.

The Republican pricing difference was 6 percentage points, substantially above that average. The comparison therefore identifies a pronounced difference in one matched outcome alongside a much smaller average gap across the full set.

Limits of the available snapshot

The report was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 5:30 AM ET. The supplied summary does not include the other matched prices, contract terms or trading conditions, limiting what can be concluded about the reasons for the divergence.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Venue matters: The Republican outcome in the 2028 party market carried materially different prices on Polymarket and Kalshi in this comparison.
  • Averages can obscure individual gaps: The 0.9-percentage-point average across 54 matched outcomes was well below the largest reported difference.
  • The gap alone is not an explanation: Without contract terms and trading conditions, the supplied data cannot establish why prices differed or whether the difference was actionable.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to PolymarketTrader”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related