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Polymarket odds rise for GPT Astra 6.1-plus release deadlines

The contract showed a 65 percent chance of a release before November 30, up four points over 24 hours, while the November 15 reading rose 12 points over the same period in the reading taken at 2:28 AM ET on November 1. TokenPost notes the contract label describes a market question, not an official OpenAI product name.

Polymarket put the probability of a GPT Astra 6.1-plus release by November 15 at 44 percent, according to TokenPost. That reading was up 12 points over 24 hours.

Two deadlines, different probabilities

The contract showed a 65 percent chance of a release before November 30, an increase of four points over the same 24-hour period. Both readings were taken at 2:28 AM ET on November 1.

The November 15 probability rose more sharply, but remained below the reading for the later deadline. The figures describe market expectations rather than confirmation of a release.

Contract wording is not a product announcement

TokenPost notes that the GPT Astra 6.1-plus label represents a market question, not an official OpenAI product name. That distinction limits what readers can infer from the contract’s wording about OpenAI’s plans.

The report was published on Nov 1, 2026, at 6:00 AM ET. The supplied summary does not include an official release announcement or explain what drove the probability changes.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Timing matters: The 44 percent reading for November 15 and 65 percent reading for before November 30 reflect different deadline expectations.
  • The earlier deadline moved faster: Its 12-point gain exceeded the later deadline’s four-point increase over 24 hours.
  • Naming requires care: The contract label should not be treated as confirmation of an official OpenAI product name.
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