Donalds retains Florida governor market lead as Jolly gains ground

Byron Donalds held a 64.5 percent probability against David Jolly’s 35.5 percent in Polymarket’s Florida governor market, according to PolymarketTrader’s November 1 reading. Donalds remained ahead despite a shift toward Jolly ahead of the November 3 vote.

Prices move toward Jolly

Over the preceding 24 hours, Donalds declined four points while Jolly gained four points, according to PolymarketTrader. The movement narrowed the gap without changing which candidate the market favored.

The figures were published on Nov 1, 2026, at 6:00 AM ET. They represent market pricing at that reading, rather than an election result.

Trading activity ahead of the vote

Total trading reached 1.11 million dollars, with 352,800 dollars traded in the last 24 hours, according to PolymarketTrader. That recent activity accounted for roughly a third of the reported total.

Liquidity stood at 570,000 dollars. The supplied figures show trading activity alongside the price shift, but do not identify what drove the move toward Jolly.

What it means for prediction markets

• The favorite was unchanged: Donalds’ 64.5 percent pricing remained above Jolly’s 35.5 percent despite the four-point moves.
• Direction and level differed: The latest movement favored Jolly, while the overall market assessment still favored Donalds.
• Activity does not establish a cause: The reported volume and liquidity provide context, but do not explain the repricing or establish whether it would continue before November 3.