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Wembanyama double-double probability surges as Doncic prop leads trading

DeFi Rate tracked 423 player props across 5 games on Kalshi and Polymarket US. The most traded prop was Luka Doncic scoring 35 or more points against Sacramento, with 46,000 contracts traded and the market pricing it at 48 percent.

Victor Wembanyama’s double-double projection rose 35 percentage points to 70 percent over 24 hours, the largest move among NBA player props, according to DeFi Rate.

The figures were published on Nov 5, 2026, at 1:00 AM ET. DeFi Rate’s coverage tracked 423 player props across 5 games on Kalshi and Polymarket US.

Biggest move versus busiest market

Wembanyama’s double-double projection stood out for its change in probability. The supplied summary does not give a trading volume for that prop or explain what drove the increase.

The most actively traded prop was Luka Doncic scoring 35 or more points against Sacramento, according to DeFi Rate. That market recorded 46,000 contracts traded and priced the outcome at 48 percent.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Price movement and trading activity highlighted different players: Wembanyama had the largest probability shift, while Doncic’s scoring prop attracted the most contracts.
  • The probabilities remained distinct: Wembanyama’s double-double projection reached 70 percent; Doncic’s 35-or-more-point outcome was priced at 48 percent.
  • The evidence has limits: Without Wembanyama’s trading volume or an explanation for the move, the summary does not establish what underpinned the repricing.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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